Constituency Watch

Page 32
Q-News, Issue 362
April 2005

Staff Writer, Interviews by Sonia Malik and Sanjana Deen

The concentration of Muslim voters in certain constituencies amplifies their voting power. In this election, which is shaping to be much closer than anticipated, the political parties are not taking any chances. Frontbenchers from all sides of the political spectrum have been dutifully visiting mosques, community centres and reassuring voters that their party has only the best interests of Muslims in mind.

But the obedient Muslim voter of the past is no longer easily convinced. There is apathy and cynicism in Muslim communities - sometimes anger, not just at Labour, but at the political process in general. The debate in many communities is no longer whether or not voting is halal or haram, but whether ticking a ballot on 5 May will really make a difference.

Of course it will, shout the parties. The Tories point to the newly created Conservative Muslim Forum, the Liberal Democrats proudly boast that they have the most Muslim candidates running under their banner, Labour - rather sheepish about Iraq and anti-terror legislation when around Muslim voters - has been sending out around Gordon Brown and Fiona Mactaggart to console Muslims that they really matter, and Respect is resting on its anti-war credentials to mop up the protest vote.

In fact, 2005 certainly marks the highest number of Muslims ever to contest seats in a general election. Few will win, but it does mark a political milestone of sorts.

The Muslim Association of Britain (MAB) has identified 40 constituencies with the highest percentage of eligible Muslim voters.

Does this mean that Muslims voters in the areas can make or break the fortunes of the candidates? Not necessarily. Voting patterns among ethnic minority communities - and by extension Muslims - is significantly lower than the national average (see Making the Muslim Vote Count). Even if we assume that the Muslim vote in these constituencies would turn decidedly against a sitting Labour MP (which is wishful thinking), the turnout would render the swing less significant. For example, in Blackburn where MPAC and a number of activist groups are hoping to un-seed Jack Straw, the estimated number of Muslim voters is 11,982 and Jack Straw won last time by a majority of 9,249 votes. With a voter turnout of 55.75%, the Muslim vote diminishes greatly and given the historic voting pattern in the constituency, coupled with the presence of a number of anti-war candidates, including for British Ambassador to Uzbekistan, Craig Murray, Jack Straw is probably not losing much sleep over election day. In seats like West Ham, where the Labour majority is even greater, a breakthrough is highly unlikely. The same pattern repeats itself over most of the 40 constituencies identified by the MAB.

Make no mistake, Muslim voters can make a difference, especially if the race is as close as polls seem to indicate, but their presence will be one of many factors that determine the outcome of individual races. Especially given the high level of frustration with the political process, that we have felt visiting communities up and down the country, the Muslim vote may be less significant than even first suggested. However, this doesn’t hold true in all constituencies. Q-News is flagging the following districts as ones to watch closely, especially on election night.

Cardiff Central: Off the radar of Muslim activists and the media alike, Cardiff Central is a marginal seat that went to Labour in 2001 with the barest of margins - 659 votes. Labour is worried that the Lib Dems could snatch the seat. With a Muslim population of 5.3%, in a tight race like this, a strong Muslim turnout could spell defeat for sitting MP, Jon Owen Jones.
Bradford West: Labour’s Marsha Singh won by 4,165 in 2001. But with a Muslim population of over 30% of the electorate (estimated 21,746 voters), he has reason to be worried. With Muslims running for both the Tories and Lib Dems, voter turnout among Muslims might be higher than usual. With a respectable showing last time, the Conservatives might be able to convince Bradford voters to give them a chance, especially if the mood in the street is “anybody but Labour”.

Brent East: Much has been made of Sarah Teather’s spectacular by-election win in Ken Livingstone’s former constituency. Anger at Labour was high in 2003 and a low voter turnout (36.2%) made sure that the angriest and most energised got heard. Make no mistake, this is Labour country and has been for decades. With a strong Labour candidate Yasmin Qureshi, earning the endorsement of the anti-war MAB and gaining favour with the local Muslim community (6.3% of electorate) this seat is up for grabs. If old habits kick in and more voters come out than in 2003, Brent East may indeed return to its Labour roots.

Dewsbury and Tooting: There is little doubt, barring a catastrophe, that Shahid Malik, longtime Labour and community activist running in Dewsbury; and Sadiq Khan, former Chair of Liberty and a prominent human rights lawyer, will be coming to Westminster, bringing the total of Muslim MPs to at least 4 (including, of course, Mohammed Sarwar and - love him or hate him - Khalid Mahmood).

Bethnal Green and Bow: Conventional wisdom would tell us this is no contest, sitting Labour MP Oona King should handily win her seat. But this is an unconventional constituency. With George Galloway running as her Respect rival, Oona is worried. Little wonder than that John Prescott and Gordon Brown decided to show up in the first days of the campaign to give her support. Respect has done remarkably well in the area, particularly in the last local and European elections and they are hoping, given Gorgeous George’s star power and a highly politicised and anti-war Bengali Muslim community, that they can snatch the seat away from Labour. Galloway has an enthusiastic cadre of volunteers - loud, brash and bold they are taking to the streets, mosques and shops to deliver the vote. A win for Respect would still be remarkable, but there is little doubt Galloway is counting on the 23.05% of the electorate. The presence of Respect’s only local councillor Oliur Rahman next door in Canning Town will certainly help.

Other constituencies to watch include: Leicester South, where anti-war sentiments brought victory to Lib Dem Paramjit Gill in a 2004 by-election and where prominent anti-war journalist Yvonne Ridley might split the anti-war vote in Labour’s favour; Birmingham Yardley, a swing seat being vacated by Estelle Morris, and hotly contested by the Lib Dems, where the small Muslim community (like in Cardiff) could make a big difference; and Rochdale, another Labour/Lib Dem marginal seat where the sizable Muslim population (12.99%) could have a major impact.

With at least four to six Muslims expected to be elected, Election 2005 will certainly be a watershed for British Muslims.

Top of the list:
Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath (37.40%),
Bradford West (30.36%),
East Ham (27.17%),
Bethnal Green and Bow (23.05%),
Birmingham Ladywood (21.35%),
Blackburn (16.50%),
Bradford North (15.50%),
West Ham (15.23%),
Birmingham Hodge Hill (14.24%),
Poplar and Canning Town (13.73%),
Rochdale (12.99%),
Luton South (12.86%),
Walthamstow (12.82%),
Manchester Gorton (12.78%)



"We are not a one-platform party", Yvonne Ridley, Respect, Leicester South
There is a real shortage of affordable housing problem in Leicester South. Homelessness has doubled since Labour came to power.  The NHS can’t be run like a business. Labour makes fine promises, but fails to fulfil them. Waiting list statistics are so easily doctored. Respect abhors the way asylum seekers are treated as an underclass. Many talented professionals come from desperate situations in their own home country. The UK has an acute shortage of qualified professionals. If refugees were respected, Britain could capitalise on their talent for the growth of the economy. £4m a day has been spent on the illegal war in Iraq and £15m on the supposed “War on Terror”. Yet, aid has not been forthcoming to either Iraq or Afghanistan. Respect is the only party that has a clear policy on Palestine. Respect wants unfettered access of aid agencies to Kashmir and the scrapping of third world debt. We’re cautious about the EU, but reject it. We fight any moves to ban the hijab. People feel betrayed by Blair. Privileges that should have gone to public services are handed over to huge corporate firms and while we are dragged headlong into this costly and illegal war. The Lib Dems would like to present themselves as an “alternative” but they fell in line with the government over the war in Iraq. I can’t promise people knighthoods, medals or tea at No 10, but I will fight in their corner.

"We’re the only real alternative", Ajmal Masroor, Liberal Democrats, West Ham
West Ham is a solid Labour stronghold. Tony Banks had a huge popular vote. Since he’s retiring, it frees up all those voters. All the candidates who are standing in my constituency are new so we are all starting from a level playing field. A good campaign can convince voters. People are sick of Labour, because of the invasion of Iraq, its failure to adequately provide basic services, and its creation of draconian laws which have infringed on civil liberties and freedom. The Lib Dems are a real alternative. People say the Lib Dems only put Muslims in unwinnable seats. That is a fair criticism, but we don’t have as many safe seats as the other parties. There are MPs who have been waiting in the wings for years. To bypass these people, to give me a chance would be unfair. In heavily populated Muslim areas, if local Muslim Lib Dem members have failed in selecting a good Muslim candidate, then that was their failure. One day I was talking to a group of friends when somebody standing behind me heard that I’m standing in West Ham. He immediately said, “Please take my contact details. Can I please come out to campaign for you?” People, friends as well as strangers have shown tremendous kindness, generosity and warmth towards my campaign as a Lib Dem candidate. I remain hopeful that I’ll be able to galvanise enough resources and manpower to pull off a successful campaign.


"The real issue is Labour’s record", Ali Miraj, Conservative, Watford
In 1997 Labour said it had no plans to increase tax but the Government has since then raised 67 taxes. The Conservatives will match public expenditure in health, education, and defence and have earmarked potential savings of £34 billion that the Government could be making. We will deal with lengthy NHS waiting lists.  We would give patients monetary grants and the choice to go to any hospital. Many parents are forced to send their children to lower-achieving schools because the good schools are too full. We would develop a voucher system so parents can take their child to any school. As for faith schools, we believe in freedom of choice, in contrast to the Lib Dems who are fiercely opposed to them. Immigrants have made a huge contribution to Britain. It is important that we bring skilled people. Many people come in on temporary visas and end up staying long-term, but we simply cannot accommodate such a huge number of people. The Labour government has spent years debating issues like fox-hunting, and yet it has rushed in the most sinister legislation to have been passed in this country within a matter of weeks: the Prevention of Terrorism Bill. This is extremely worrying. The Conservatives were the ones who pushed for a sunset clause, which may not provide much comfort for some but is still a step in the right direction. It is unfortunate that this Bill will affect Muslims disproportionately. Debt relief is a serious international issue, but a bigger issue is trade. It’s all about that African slogan: “We don’t want aid, we want trade”. Free and open trade is the only way in which debt-ridden countries will be able to sustain themselves.


"No party has done more than Labour",  Sadiq Khan, Labour, Tooting
I have been a member of the Labour party since I was fifteen. There has only been one party which has looked after the concerns of Muslims, and that is Labour. In the 1960s which party introduced the Race Relations Act? Which party abolished the Primary Purpose Rule (requirements to be satisfied by a non-British spouse to come to the UK)? Which party allowed Shariah-compatible mortgages to become tax-efficient? Which party safeguarded halal food processing? The Labour government has now approved five Muslim schools paid for by taxpayers. Before 1997, under the Conservatives, there were none. The current Government has doubled aid to Pakistan and Bangladesh. I have many concerns regarding the Prevention of Terrorism Act and fear that it will be used disproportionately against Muslims, who are being criminalised due to the Anti Terror laws of 2000, 2001 and now 2005. However, I do not believe that one or two issues should determine one’s vote. The Tories were with Labour on all these Acts and the Lib Dems were with Labour on the 2005 Act. As MP, one of my first steps will be to fight to make the legislation more equitable. I have already given evidence to the Privy Council highlighting the unfairness of this legislation. You need the partnership and cooperation of the community in order to fight terrorism and crime. A government cannot operate in isolation. Labour have a few policies that I am unhappy about but generally their policies  are more socially just and better for the economy. A general election is about choosing a Government with the best range of policies. From record investment in schools to supporting Turkey’s bid to join the EU, there is no contest.


Muslim Candidates, Elections 2005

Conservatives: Shahagir Bakth Faruk (Bethnal Green & Bow), Naweed Khan (Birmingham Perry Barr), Tariq Ahmad (Croydon North), Sayeeda Warsi (Dewsbury), Ertan Hurer (Hackney North and Stoke Newington), Ali Miraj (Watford, opposite page), Khalid Hussain (Rochdale), Mohammed Abdel-Haq (Swansea West), Yousef Miah (Burnley), Imtiaz Ameen (Blackburn), Hasan Imam (Bolsover), Haroon Rashid (Bradford West), Sameer Mirza (Birmingham Sparkbrook, Wafik Moustafa (Bootle), Amar Ahmed (Manchester Blackley)

Labour: Yasmin Qureshi (Brent East), Sadiq Khan (Tooting), Shahid Malik (Dewsbury), Rehman Chishti (Horsham), Mohammed Khaliel (Aylesbury), Farmida Bi (Mole Valley), Rupa Haq (Amersham), Kaleem Saeed (Henley), Ayfer Orhan (North West Cambridgeshire), Mahroof Hussain (Sheffield Hallam), Mohammad Sarwar (Glasgow Central), Khalid Mahmood Birmingham (Perry Barr)

Liberal Democrats: Issan Ghazni (Nottingham East), Qurban Hussain (Luton South), Talib Hussain (Birmingham Smallhealth & Sparkbrook), Meher Khan (Leyton & Wanstead), Tariq Mahmood (Uxbridge), Farid Ahmed (Walthamstow), Shazad Anwar (Pendle), Nowsheen Bhatti (Battersea), Nasser Butt (Mole Valley), Ajmal Masroor (West Ham), Ayoub Khan (Birmingham Ladywood), Fiyaz Mughal (Leicester), Qassim Afzal (Manchester Gorton), Mukhtar Ali (Bradford West), Ashgar Ali (Caerphilly), Ali Asghar (Nuneaton), Mohamed Hanif Asmal (Walsall South), Faraz Bhatti (Stretford & Urmston), Syed Nurul Islam Dulu (Bethnal Green and Bow), Zuffar Haq (Leicester West), Ali Qadar (Sheffield Central)

Respect: Dr Mohammad Naseem (Birmingham Perry Barr), Salma Yaqoob (Birmingham Sparkbrook and Small Heath), Ümit Yildiz (Bradford North), Raja Gul Raiz (Cardiff Central), Abdul Khaliq Mian (East Ham), Yvonne Ridley (Leicester South), Mohammed Ilyas (Luton South), Oliur Rahman (Poplar and Canning Town), Jazz Khan (Slough), Ali J Zaidi (Tooting), Nadia Fazal (Walsall South)